CPI Preview: Here's What The Street Expects And How The Market Will React

The CPI report tomorrow will be unique because for the very first time, since the inflation peak in June last year, the consensus expects headline to remain at 5.0% while core inflation, which last month exceeded headline for the very first time since 2020, is expected to drop just barely from 5.6% down to 5.5%. However, Goldman and JPM see both headline and annual core inflation showing a modest increase (more below).

The street expects a headline CPI of +0.4% MoM in April (a huge jump from the previous 0.1%), while core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at +0.4%.